Is the Crypto Market Topping Out? Key Signals to Watch

The crypto market is heating up as bullish momentum sweeps across altcoins, raising a critical question: is this rally sustainable, or is a correction looming?

This week, Santiment founder Maksim tackled that concern head-on, using hard data rather than hype to evaluate market conditions.

In a detailed analysis, Maksim laid out a clear, objective framework built on social sentiment, on-chain metrics, and DeFi activity. His approach avoids emotional reactions, favoring actionable signals that can help traders navigate uncertain territory.

Social and on-chain data reveal early warning signs

One of the first red flags Maksim identifies is a surge in mentions of “alt season.” When this term makes up more than 1% of crypto-related discussions, it usually signals that retail euphoria is peaking. He also pointed to a common pattern called “social divergence,” where prices rise while social interest fades—often a signal that the excitement is drying up.

More advanced insights came from cross-platform analysis: while Twitter may show fading interest, a sudden spike in 4chan chatter typically precedes market climaxes. According to Maksim, the combination of both is a high-conviction top signal.

He also highlighted rising DeFi borrowing activity, particularly the jump in USDC yields on Compound to 11%. Historically, yields nearing 20% have marked periods of speculative excess and market reversals.

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Altcoins near risk territory, but no hard top yet

Using Chainlink (LINK) as a case study, Maksim showed how extreme funding rates and a 30% MVRV ratio indicate growing risk of profit-taking. However, he also analyzed Solana ecosystem data through BONK and found strong on-chain support with no signs of divergence—a signal that some altcoins may still have room to run.

In his final take, Maksim concluded that while short-term correction risks are rising, the decisive conditions for a market-wide top are not yet in place. His advice to investors: follow the data, not the noise. By monitoring a mix of social trends, stablecoin flows, and on-chain fundamentals, traders can stay ahead of the next big shift in sentiment.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.