{"id":10280,"date":"2026-02-19T10:27:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T08:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptodnes.bg\/cz\/?p=10280"},"modified":"2026-02-17T10:27:44","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T08:27:44","slug":"willy-woo-varuje-ze-kvantove-riziko-oslabuje-naskok-bitcoinu-vuci-zlatu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptodnes.bg\/cz\/willy-woo-varuje-ze-kvantove-riziko-oslabuje-naskok-bitcoinu-vuci-zlatu\/","title":{"rendered":"Willy Woo varuje, \u017ee kvantov\u00e9 riziko oslabuje n\u00e1skok Bitcoinu v\u016f\u010di zlatu"},"content":{"rendered":"

On-chain analytik a jeden z ran\u00fdch adop\u00adter\u016f Bitcoinu Willy Woo upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed pozornost v\u011bnovan\u00e1 rizik\u016fm spojen\u00fdm s kvantov\u00fdmi po\u010d\u00edta\u010di za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 negativn\u011b dopadat na dlouhodob\u00fd investi\u010dn\u00ed horizont Bitcoinu<\/a><\/strong> ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se zlatem<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Woo v pond\u011bln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku na s\u00edti X uvedl, \u017ee trhy u\u017e za\u010daly zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vat riziko budouc\u00edho pr\u016flomu \u201eQ-Day<\/strong>\u201c \u2014 zkratky pro moment, kdy bude existovat dostate\u010dn\u011b v\u00fdkonn\u00fd kvantov\u00fd po\u010d\u00edta\u010d schopn\u00fd prolomit dne\u0161n\u00ed kryptografii ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch kl\u00ed\u010d\u016f.<\/p>\n

Woo argumentoval, \u017ee zhruba 4 miliony \u201eztracen\u00fdch\u201c bitcoin\u016f \u2014 tedy minc\u00ed, u nich\u017e se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee jejich priv\u00e1tn\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010de jsou nav\u017edy pry\u010d \u2014 by se mohly vr\u00e1tit do ob\u011bhu, pokud by v\u00fdkonn\u00fd kvantov\u00fd po\u010d\u00edta\u010d dok\u00e1zal odvodit priv\u00e1tn\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010de z ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch kl\u00ed\u010d\u016f<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 jsou ji\u017e na blockchainu odhalen\u00e9. T\u00edm by se naru\u0161ila \u010d\u00e1st z\u00e1kladn\u00edho narativu o vz\u00e1cnosti Bitcoinu.<\/p>\n

Odhadl, \u017ee existuje asi 25% pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee by se s\u00ed\u0165 mohla dohodnout na \u201ezmrazen\u00ed\u201c t\u011bchto minc\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm hard forku \u2014 co\u017e je dnes jedna z nejkontroverzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch ot\u00e1zek v bitcoinov\u00e9m governance.<\/p>\n

Riziko \u201eQ-Day\u201c a ztracen\u00e9 mince BTC<\/h2>\n

Podle blockchainov\u00fdch v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk\u016f t\u011bchto 4 miliony \u201eexponovan\u00fdch\u201c minc\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 25\u201330 % bitcoinov\u00e9 z\u00e1soby<\/strong> a jsou dr\u017eeny na adres\u00e1ch, jejich\u017e ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 kl\u00ed\u010de jsou u\u017e viditeln\u00e9 na on-chain, co\u017e z nich v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b kvantov\u00e9ho \u00fatoku d\u011bl\u00e1 jedny z prvn\u00edch ohro\u017een\u00fdch.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00fdkoli krok ke zmrazen\u00ed t\u011bchto minc\u00ed by v\u0161ak p\u0159evr\u00e1til dlouhodob\u011b uzn\u00e1van\u00e9 normy t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se zam\u011bnitelnosti (fungibility<\/strong>), nem\u011bnnosti (immutability<\/strong>) a vlastnick\u00fdch pr\u00e1v.<\/p>\n

Zmrazen\u00ed by mohlo vyvolat hlubok\u00e9 rozkoly mezi t\u011bmi, kdo up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed zp\u011btn\u011b kompatibiln\u00ed opravy (upgrady, kter\u00e9 zachov\u00e1vaj\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed pravidla a mince, ani\u017e by zneplatnily minul\u00e1 data nebo vy\u017eadovaly sporn\u00fd hard fork), a t\u011bmi, kdo by byli ochotni p\u0159epsat pravidla, aby ochr\u00e1nili ran\u00e9 z\u016fstatky.<\/p>\n

Woo uvedl, \u017ee pokud je 75% pravd\u011bpodobnost<\/strong>, \u017ee tyto mince z\u016fstanou nedot\u010den\u00e9, investo\u0159i by p\u0159esto m\u011bli po\u010d\u00edtat s nezanedbatelnou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed, \u017ee mno\u017estv\u00ed BTC odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed zhruba \u201e8 let\u016fm podnikov\u00e9 akumulace\u201c se znovu stane utratiteln\u00fdm.<\/p>\n

Podle Wooa se tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 u\u017e prom\u00edt\u00e1 do struktur\u00e1ln\u00edho diskontu v ocen\u011bn\u00ed BTC v\u016f\u010di zlatu v horizontu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch p\u011bti a\u017e patn\u00e1cti let<\/strong>. Jin\u00fdmi slovy: dlouhodob\u00e1 tendence Bitcoinu z\u00edsk\u00e1vat kupn\u00ed s\u00edlu p\u0159i m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed v unc\u00edch zlata u\u017e podle n\u011bj nemus\u00ed platit.<\/p>\n

\"Dlouhodob\u00fd
Dlouhodob\u00fd pom\u011br BTC vs. zlato. Zdroj: Bitbo<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Migra\u010dn\u00ed cesta Bitcoinu do post-kvantov\u00e9 \u00e9ry<\/h2>\n

Mnoho core v\u00fdvoj\u00e1\u0159\u016f a kryptograf\u016f zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee Bitcoin ne\u010del\u00ed bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed \u201eapokalypse\u201c<\/strong> a m\u00e1 \u010das se p\u0159izp\u016fsobit.<\/p>\n

Podle nich se r\u00fdsuj\u00edc\u00ed pl\u00e1n p\u0159echodu do post-kvantov\u00e9ho re\u017eimu nem\u00e1 odehr\u00e1t jako jeden nouzov\u00fd hard fork, ale jako postupn\u00fd, f\u00e1zovan\u00fd proces, kter\u00fd by s\u00ed\u0165 b\u011bhem n\u011bkolikalet\u00e9 tranzice nakonec nasm\u011broval k nov\u00fdm form\u00e1t\u016fm adres a postup\u016fm spr\u00e1vy kl\u00ed\u010d\u016f.<\/p>\n

I kdyby kvantov\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edta\u010de dorazily d\u0159\u00edv, ne\u017e se \u010dek\u00e1, a mince by se do ob\u011bhu vr\u00e1tily, n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed bitcoinov\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i \u2014 nap\u0159\u00edklad Alex Gladstein, \u0159editel strategie Human Rights Foundation \u2014 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by byly okam\u017eit\u011b masivn\u011b prod\u00e1ny na trhu.<\/p>\n

Gladstein za pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pova\u017euje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, \u017ee by je sp\u00ed\u0161e akumuloval n\u011bjak\u00fd n\u00e1rodn\u00ed st\u00e1t, ne\u017e aby do\u0161lo k okam\u017eit\u00e9mu dumpu.<\/p>\n

Kvantov\u00e9 riziko se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do mainstreamu makra<\/h2>\n

Wooovo varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed v dob\u011b, kdy se Bitcoin obchoduje t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 50 % pod historick\u00fdm maximem, a kdy se kvantov\u00e9 riziko u\u017e p\u0159esunulo z okrajov\u00e9 technick\u00e9 debaty do mainstreamov\u00e9ho rizikov\u00e9ho faktoru pro institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed portfolia.<\/p>\n

V lednu dlouholet\u00fd strat\u00e9g Jefferies Greed & Fear Christopher Wood vy\u0159adil Bitcoin ze sv\u00e9ho vlajkov\u00e9ho modelov\u00e9ho portfolia a pozici p\u0159esunul do zlata. Jako d\u016fvod v\u00fdslovn\u011b uvedl mo\u017enost, \u017ee \u201ekryptograficky relevantn\u00ed\u201c kvantov\u00e9 stroje by mohly oslabit argument Bitcoinu jako uchovatele hodnoty pro investory typu penzijn\u00edch fond\u016f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On-chain analytik a jeden z ran\u00fdch adop\u00adter\u016f Bitcoinu Willy Woo upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed pozornost v\u011bnovan\u00e1 rizik\u016fm spojen\u00fdm s kvantov\u00fdmi po\u010d\u00edta\u010di za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 negativn\u011b dopadat na dlouhodob\u00fd investi\u010dn\u00ed horizont Bitcoinu ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se zlatem. Woo v pond\u011bln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku na s\u00edti X uvedl, \u017ee trhy u\u017e za\u010daly zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vat riziko budouc\u00edho pr\u016flomu \u201eQ-Day\u201c \u2014 zkratky pro moment, kdy bude […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":10149,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"no","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[20,85,48,643,22],"coin_category":[380,662,262,364,316,603,294,290,274,289,275,676,263,468,373,293,651,336,487,256,278,646,297,688,282,266,425,265,415,259,396,707,300,584,338,450,476,376,545,370],"class_list":["post-10280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nove","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-investori","tag-on-chain","tag-zlato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWilly Woo varuje, \u017ee kvantov\u00e9 riziko oslabuje n\u00e1skok Bitcoinu v\u016f\u010di zlatu - 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